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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's talk show from Dallas today.  It's here.

NOVEMBER 5,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

MIRACLE? –  The polling is essentially over.  There may be a few late numbers tomorrow (Tuesday) morning.  One late poll is fascinating.  It reports that, in Michigan, our terrific GOP African-American West Point graduate, candidate for the US Senate, John James, is closing fast on incumbent Dem Senator Debbie Stabenow.  According to this one poll, James is only three points behind Stabenow, who led him by double digits only weeks ago.  There may not be enough time to slam-dunk this, but John James is a man to watch.  You may have seen him interviewed on TV.  First-class guy.

DEMS IN THE PLAYPEN – FROM DAILYWIRE.COM:   Democrats are paying visits to their therapists, complaining of "post traumatic stress disorder," "nightmares," and "anxiety" ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, according to a report from Politico.  "Haunted by memories of 2016, liberals around the country are riven with anxiety in the campaign’s homestretch," the Washington, D.C.-based outlet claims, adding that leftists are grappling with the possibility that most polls -- like in 2016 -- are wrong, and that rumors of a "blue wave" are far overstated.  "Some report literal nightmares about a Democratic wipe-out," Politico adds.  “We're kind of just in the bed-wetting phase now," a Democratic pollster, who worked alongside the Hillary Clinton campaign in 2016 said in an interview with Politico. Another, a former Pelosi staffer, said she suffers from nightmares every night, after falling asleep reading the latest polls.  Others are “eating their feelings," according to a YouGov poll released just last week, and still others are complaining of symptoms of "post traumatic stress disorder" or PTSD.  Once the party of Roosevelt, Truman, and Kennedy.  No more.

SARAH SPEAKS – FROM FOX:   Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin blasted "Saturday Night Live" creator and producer Lorne Michaels after a comic on the show made fun of a Texas GOP congressional candidate who lost an eye serving in Afghanistan.  Comedian Pete Davidson joked about retired Navy SEAL Dan Crenshaw's eye patch, saying he looks like a pirate in a pornographic film.  Davidson, 24, giggled afterwards, saying, "Sorry. I know he lost his eye in war, or whatever."  While Crenshaw said Monday on "Fox & Friends" that he would not demand an apology from Davidson or the show, Palin fired back at Michaels on Facebook.  "With all the grace I can muster I challenge you to wrestle back control of the show you’d shepherded, but allowed to be hijacked by some pretty sick - and boringly uncreative - young men," she said of Michaels, 73.  "You’re going down with the ship, Lorne. Sad to see your life’s work and worth crumble under the heartless no-talents."   Well said, like the "original" Sarah we once knew.  Is she preparing to return to public life? 

November 5, 2018       Permalink

THE GENERIC BALLOT – AT 1:30 P.M. ET:  The last-minute generic ballot polls are in, and most place the Democratic lead over Republicans at about seven or eight points.  One final poll, though, from Politico/Morning Consult reduces the lead to three points. 

And then there's Rasmussen, the only poll left that tracks every day:

The final Rasmussen Reports Generic Congressional Ballot before Election Day shows Republicans edging ahead by one point, but in essence, the two parties are tied. The survey has a +/-2 percentage point margin of error.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds that 46% would choose the Republican candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Forty-five percent (45%) would vote for the Democrat. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

A week ago, Democrats held a 47% to 44% lead. Since Rasmussen Reports began the weekly surveying in early May, Democrats have led every week but one until early last month. Following the controversy surrounding the Senate confirmation of U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, the Generic Congressional Ballot was tied for two weeks, but then Democrats moved back ahead. 

The GOP now has a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major party. But significantly, 20% of these voters remain undecided or prefer someone other than the Republican or Democratic candidates.  

COMMENT:  Rasmussen is the most controversial of all the major polls, and is sometimes considered a Republican poll.  We'll see tomorrow night how accurate they've been.

November 5,  2018     Permalink

ONE DAY – AT 12:48 P.M. ET:  We're a day away from the voting.  I'm inclined to quote William Goldman's line about Hollywood:  "Nobody knows anything."

All kinds of predictions are being made, but nobody knows who will actually turn up at the polls.  We're told that Hispanic turnout is expected to be massively larger than expected only months ago, but no one is sure, and no one is sure exactly how Hispanics will vote. 

We're told that young people will turn out massively, but that's always said, and they generally manage to prefer pizza to voting.

The polls themselves are all over the place, although I'll concede that Democrats are probably feeling more optimistic today than Republicans.

One line you keep hearing is that Democrats are afraid of a 2016 repeat, when they were measuring drapes for their new homes in Washington before learning that Hillary wouldn't be moving there, and wouldn't therefore need much help.

The television networks are treating this midterm on the same level as a presidential contest, undoubtedly hoping that they will be reporting a Trump defeat.  One can imagine the smiles on the CNN faces.  And they could be right.

If the Dems do sweep it, they may well do so based entirely on two factors – intense dislike of the president, and the fact that the Democrats today are so far left that they're offering more free stuff than they ever have.  Remember the old line that democracies last until people learn that they can raid the Treasury.  Maybe the raid is about to begin.

November 5,  2018     Permalink

NOVEMBER 4,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

ANOTHER DAY ON CAMPUS – FROM COLLEGE FIX:  A coalition of liberal student organizations has condemned California State-Long Beach President Jane Close Conoley and her administration for allowing an event hosted by the school’s Turning Point USA group.  On October 23, TPUSA hosted conservative pundits Charlie Kirk and Candace Owens who were greeted by some 200 demonstrators protesting outside the venue. The activists chanted phrases such as “Go home, fascists” and “Say it loud, say it clear, immigrants are welcome here.”  The day before, President Conoley had sent a reminder email to the campus community about what the First Amendment is all about, noting “free speech rights must be respected and protected” … meaning anyone attempting to thwart Kirk and Owens would be dealt with.  This did not sit well with the progressive CSULB groups. According to the Daily 49er, two days after the event the coalition comprised of organizations such as the Black Student Union, La Raza Student Association, Queers and Allies, and the Young Democratic Socialists of America, published a statement condemning Conoley and the administration for failing to protect and support “marginalized groups on campus.”  Since the "marginalized groups" are so unhappy, maybe they can move their marginalized, full-scholarship butts to another school.

COULD IT HAPPEN? – I want to caution readers about overconfidence regarding Republican prospects for the Senate on Tuesday.  There is an assumption that the GOP will hold control of the Senate, while losing the House.  That's probably a reasonable guess, but last-minute polling shows the possibility that the Republicans can actually lose the Senate.  A number of races are almost dead heats, and there appears to be some erosion in Marsha Blackburn's position in Tennessee.  Two polls show her in a dead heat, whereas she was leading comfortably only a week ago.  We stress that these are last-minute polls.  They may not be accurate, and turnout will still be the key.  But slight national shifts in sentiment can produce a bad result for Senate Republicans.  We hope it doesn't happen, and that the GOP gains seats in the Senate, but we want to warn that this is not a done deal.  Iet's all about turnout.

ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF LEFTIST "CULTURE" – FROM FOX:     Dan Crenshaw, a Texas Republican Congressional candidate, took the high road Sunday after 'Saturday Night Live' actor Pete Davidson joked that the former Navy SEAL's eye patch made him look like a "hit man in a porno movie."
Davidson stirred up controversy during Saturday's "Weekend Update" when he said Crenshaw's photo was "kinda cool," but that viewers might be "surprised he's a congressional candidate from Texas and not a hitman in a porno movie." He added, "I'm sorry, I know he lost his eye in the war or whatever."  Crenshaw wears an eyepatch because he was badly wounded during his third tour in Afghanistan as a Navy SEAL.  The National Republican Congressional Committee tweeted Sunday morning that Davidson and NBC "should immediately apologize to Dan, and to the millions of veterans and military families who tune in every weekend -- because they're not laughing."  But Crenshaw backed away from demanding an apology from either Davidson or NBC. He said the "real atrocity" was Davidson's attempt at a joke, which he called "not funny" and "mean-spirited."  "[I]t wasn't even funny. Right? It was not original, it was not funny, it was just mean-spirited and that's how I feel about it," Crenshaw told TMZ.  Apologies should be made, regardless of whether Crenshaw asks for them.  That was a disgraceful moment, but typical of low standards in broadcasting today.

November 4, 2018       Permalink

MORE FUN – AT 7:43 P.M. ET:   I cannot report any real news about the election.  At this point much of the stuff out there, on this Sunday night, can be labeled infotainment, or, far better, fun.  But there is one invigorating nugget I did find from Wayne Allyn Root.  Do you know him?  He's a libertarian based in Las Vegas, at times brilliant, at times nutty, with a varied career as author, businessman, mild conspiracy theorist and sharp observer.  He was a member of Barack Obama's class at Columbia, and, like most others at Columbia, can't remember him.  He was one of the few analysts to predict Donald Trump's victory in 2016.  He is not taken seriously by the establishment, which is a recommendation.  Here's what he's writing today.  From the Las Vegas Review-Journal: 

This is my final column before the midterm election. This former Vegas oddsmaker turned national political commentator has a few predictions and commonsense observations to make.

Back in 2016, I predicted a Donald Trump victory when no one else dared. Every poll showed Trump would lose the presidency to Hillary Clinton by a wide margin. So how did I know?

First: Size matters. You could see it in the rallies. Trump would attract eight-hour lines and overflow attendance at wild, intense rallies all over America.

Meanwhile, the attendees at Hillary’s rallies could have fit in my living room. The same held true across America. That was my first clue that Trump was going to pull a huge upset that few saw coming.

Second: Trump was “the whisper candidate.” Everywhere I went, people whispered in my ear, “I’m with you. I’m for Trump.” They wouldn’t tell pollsters. They wouldn’t put up yard signs. No bumper stickers on their cars. But they whispered to me.

Don’t look now, but it’s all happening again. Nate Silver says Democrats have a greater than 80 percent chance of winning the House. The Cook Political Report says Democrats will win the House by 40 seats. All the experts say it’s over: Democrats will win. I’ll go out on a limb and disagree again.

I see Andrew Gillum, Florida’s Democratic candidate for governor, holding a rally with Bernie Sanders, and the place is empty. Barack Obama could not fill a high school gym in Milwaukee. I saw Joe Biden and Obama at separate events here in Las Vegas playing to small crowds. Meanwhile, I was opening speaker for President Trump’s event in September at the Las Vegas Convention Center — with thousands waiting in line for hours.

Does that sound like the GOP is losing 40 seats? Dream on, delusional Democrats.

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  At least he makes serious observations.  We'll find out how truly observant he was Tuesday night. 

November 4, 2018       Permalink

TWO DAYS TO GO – AT 12:51 P.M. ET:  All we have right now is speculation and late polling.  Everything points to a series of very close elections on Tuesday.  Democrats hold an average seven-point lead in generic ballot survey.  But look at this, from Don Surber: 

Target Early, a Democratic political data and data services firm, has bad news for Democrats. Early voting in battleground states is going to Republicans.

The site's numbers show Republicans are up:

178,464 votes in Arizona.
136,779 votes in Florida.
105,352 votes in Indiana.
2,282 votes in Missouri.
48,581 votes in Montana.
46,742 votes in North Dakota.
85,713 votes in Ohio.
8,023 votes in Pennsylvania.
464.358 votes in Tennessee.
767,458 votes in Texas.
36,089 votes in Wisconsin.
26,579 votes in West Virginia.

Does this mean Republicans will take all 12 Senate seats in those states on Tuesday? Of course not.

But starting behind in those 12 states means Democrats will be harder pressed in their Get Out The Vote efforts on Election Day.

COMMENT:  I do not see, in all the late polling, any last-minute breakthroughs pointing toward a significant conclusion.   With so many tight races, all will depend on turnout.

November 4,  2018     Permalink